29/12/2024
Good Evening Pacifica.
This evening we are monitoring Tropical Disturbance located in the open waters between Fiji and Vanuatu. This system was recently designated by RSMC Nadi as the first tropical system of the 2024-2025 Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season.
Over the past 6-12 hours, convective activities associated with the system has diminished and becoming displaced to the east of the supposed centre of the system. A recent ASCAT pass over the system shows what appears to be a developing low level circulation centre with winds of 25-30 knots. The system lies in an area of favourable conditions with low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures of up to 29 degree celsius. Slight intensification is likely although the chances of the system attaining Category 1 Tropical Cyclone status in the next 24-48 hours is LOW.
Based on current computer model guidances, no major intensification is forecast and the system should remain weak. TD is expected to slowly move towards the south east in a trajectory that could bring it close to the islands of Fiji over the next 48-72 hours, however by that time the system will be much weaker, possibly a remnant low by then. Note that current forecasts can be subject to change.
Keep an eye out for the latest update from your local weather agencies for the latest on Tropical Disturbances .
