01/10/2026
Mackerel are the fish most of us caught first, and the one we introduce our kids to. They're the backbone of summer pier fishing and a big part of the charter and holiday fishing offer. They're the bait many of us rely on. They're also food for the fish we love to target, from bass and pollack to bluefin tuna. Fewer mackerel means fewer people getting into the sport, anglers buying in bait at extortionate prices that they used to catch themselves, and less for the predators to feed on.
So today's news might come as a surprise. ICES, the independent scientists who advise governments on North East Atlantic fish stocks, have recommended a 2027 mackerel catch of 352,938 tonnes, more than double their advice for this year.
Here's what that means...
📉 The stock is only just above its safety limit. Scientists measure a stock by the amount of adult fish able to spawn. This year's estimate puts mackerel just 4% above the level ICES treats as the point of serious harm, and still below the level it considers healthy. In 2014, there were around four times as many spawning mackerel as there are now.
🔢 The advice has doubled, the fish haven't. Last year the stock was assessed as below that safety limit, so ICES used a strict recovery rule. Now that it's just above the line, the normal rule kicks in and the advised catch jumps. The stock itself has changed far less.
🐟 It's hanging on one year of young fish. The improvement rests mainly on a better crop of young mackerel born in 2024, which ICES says still needs confirming. Even if countries follow the advice, ICES puts the chance of the stock slipping back below its safety limit in 2028 at one in three.
⚖️ This is not down to anglers. Recreational catches are tiny compared with the commercial pelagic fleets. The problem is that the countries fishing mackerel have never agreed how to share it, so each sets its own quota. For 2026 those quotas added up to 398,186 tonnes, more than double the advice. Since 2010, catches have been on average 39% above what scientists advised.
📍 Why your local mark feels it first. When a stock shrinks, it tends to pull back towards the heart of its range, so inshore waters where we fish are likely to be among the first places to go quiet. Mackerel are also following changing sea temperatures and food. This summer's international survey efforts found them concentrated far to the north and east, in the Norwegian Sea and off eastern Iceland.
What we're doing
In November, the Angling Trust will attend the North East Atlantic Fisheries Commission (NEAFC) Annual Meeting in London as an NGO observer. We'll be speaking with the UK delegation to press for catches in line with the scientific advice, and we'll report back on what's decided.
💬 How's your mackerel fishing been this year? Tell us in the comments where you fish and what you've seen. Your experiences help us make the case.
