08/20/2026
Ok folks, I know it's been a while since I've posted analysis for you, but again, you could go all the way back to the firsyou ct post I did on this and you'd have seen all of them after told you we would likely see 55 if 66 didn't hold. Those were in my notes since the highs we had in the 100's. So, why am I posting today?
Because, since falling to 55th, Silver has gone back to what was once support which had flipped to resistance. That is your key number at 66. Today at 67, for the moment, you have broken out over that level by a dollar. If silver can hold any level over 66 for the weekly close on Friday, you are almost certainly going to go back to... Wait for it... Yeah 72. Remember how long we held 72 as a major support line? 66 is what you are trying to turn back into support and what you are trying to break out over, is 72. You should have a strong idea over the next two days how likely that breakout is going to be based on your Friday weekly close. For the moment, it looks likely.
As I've said in the past, you could point to the macros and say, we dropped because of this or ran up because of the war... I didn't know about any of that in November when we plotted out these numbers for you and through the year I told you 55 was in the cards no matter how high we ran. Technical analysis works. If you learn it, you really increase your chances of knowing where the market goes. I wasn't guessing on any of my posts through the years, but if you go back through them, all of these levels were already laid out.
GOLD:
- I literally don't care what the charts say about this. My opinion is banks and major global players can't get enough of it and I believe it will be a major driver in monetary change globally. Check out China's ruling on paper gold. Check out the central banks appetite for the metal.
Q2 2026 Record Surge: Central bank net gold purchases reached an all-time second-quarter high of 289 tonnes. This marked a five-fold acceleration from the revised, lackluster first quarter.
Historical Multi-Year Pace: Over the past four years, official institutions have averaged roughly 1,000 tonnes of gold accumulation annually. This is nearly double the buying pace of the previous decade.Stealth Shift in Global Reserves: Gold now constitutes roughly 24% of global central bank foreign exchange reserves, officially eclipsing U.S. Treasury bonds (23%) for the first time in modern history
The Sovereign Balance: Total global official gold reserves have officially surpassed 40,000 tonnes, climbing near the historic 1965 peak. Non-Western countries own a record 48% of this official-sector bullion.🔎 Leading Sovereign Buyers in 2026Poland: The National Bank of Poland continues its reign as the world's most aggressive official buyer. After adding 102 tonnes in 2025, it secured 82 tonnes in the first half of 2026 alone. Its governor targets eventual reserves of 700 tonnes for "national security reasons"
China: The People's Bank of China has consistently expanded its reserves, executing its largest monthly purchase in years with a 20-tonne addition in July 2026. This extended its official buying streak to 21 consecutive months.
Other Active Nations: Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Brazil, and the Czech National Bank have all notched multi-tonne additions to their sovereign vaults throughout 2025 and 2026 to hedge macro volatility.đź’ˇ
Core Drivers Behind the Sovereign Gold RushDe-Dollarization and Weaponization Fears: Following the 2022 freezing of Russia's foreign reserves, emerging market reserve managers have prioritized un-sanctionable, physical assets. According to Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) data, a record 45% of central banks plan to expand gold holdings, while 74% plan to scale back long-term U.S. dollar exposure.
Geopolitical Risk Hedging: Escalating regional conflicts—specifically multi-front friction involving the U.S., Iran, and Israel—have reinforced gold’s role as the ultimate safe haven. More than 51% of reserve managers list geopolitical risk as their primary motivation for buying bullion.
Repatriation and Domestic Vaulting: Central banks are not just buying more gold; they are changing where they keep it. In response to freezing risks, a growing share of institutions are liquidating overseas storage (such as in New York or London) to store bullion natively inside their own borders.
Over a year, have been off on a call 1 time? I encourage you to read my posts from the past year. See if the key numbers and technical analysis was correct. It wasn't any special ability. The charts always told you what was going to happen.
*Bearish argument for gold is that it could see 3400-3600. Again, I don't care. I want gold at those levels, I want it at the current levels.
*Bearish argument for silver is if it cannot break 72 or hold 66... You will head right back to 55.