09/20/2026
Well, this is one of the first time we have several conflicting signals both on Silver and Gold. Let's start with Silver... As you know from prior posts, we've stuck to saying if Silver loses control of 66, it's very likely to visit 55. In our last post silver did break out over 66 attempted to break into that key number of 72 we have mentioned since last year at this time. It was rejected twice and appeared to be losing that support at 66.
FOMC and the Fed rate hike generally will strengthen the dollar and send gold, silver, crypto, and stocks down. Stocks did go down, but metals very oddly bounced on this news and held support on Friday. Let me put a really fine point on how unusual that is. So the next question for Silver on Monday is will it be able to hold 66 and attempt another breakout?
There are bullish signals suggesting that could be the case for Monday, but there are also bearish ones. Mainly, while we see these levels, silver keeps getting rejected above 66 and it is BELOW the 200 day moving average which really does suggest it will head lower. This is one of those times that macros such as bond yields, war, oil, and general fear may be pushing silver despite rate hikes and bearish signals on the chart.
For Monday, as it pertains to silver, you are watching this key level of 66 and hoping it can hold on the weekly if not breaking out over that 72 level. If I had to guess, I would be guessing that we will see more downside, but again... This is the first time in a long time Silver completely ignored the indicators and macros and moved up. Once again, I want to stress how unusual that is and I will be watching this week and the next one with particular interest as we head into the monthly close.
****GOLD****
Like silver we have bearish and bullish signals at the same time which is likewise a bit confusing. There is a very clear very STRONG head and shoulders pattern that formed on gold and generally, that is the chart signal which suggests a strong pullback and as you know we've said to 3600ish. Like silver, it is also behind the 200 day moving average. Both of those signals are very bearish.
Yet, with a very bearish macro with rate hikes, it still ran up and is touching that 200 day, but barely. It looked like the neckline on the head and shoulders pattern was going to break, but like silver we have a very unusual move up on the news of a rate hike.
Overall, I think a lot of this has to do with oil crisis, the fact that bond yields are skyrocketing, and that many folks are dumping the USD. However, on the DXY, the dollar seems to have double bottomed and should really push upwards next. If that is the case, I'd call for both metals to pull back, however, up to here, they are flashing a signal that tells me something quite strange is brewing in the world and we may see some wild volatility / blackswan events. Longer term, I still see nations stockpiling gold so any pullbacks on metals are huge buying signals to me.
They next couple weeks should be wild as fears of WW3 and supply chain issues are being stoked. Again, bearish and bullish signals are out there, but so are very unusual signals in macros for the world. The next 14 days should be wild and wooly. Stay safe and be prepared. Top off your supplies, I think we may be seeing serious supply chain disruptions and inflation (food, dry goods, water, supplies).
Be safe and take care!