10/08/2026
Plan on getting that yard work in early this weekend. may be stopping by Sunday...
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Another Sunday down the tubes?
It's looking like that will be the case, which has been a common theme lately with rain. This time the culprit is the remnants of Tropical Storm Isaias, currently in the southwest Gulf. It is expected to become the first tropical cyclone this season to reach hurricane status before landfall per NHC estimates and model forecasts.
If you want your Sunday to be spared with minimal impact to our region, you'll want to cheer on the European model (top images). Most others look more like the GFS (bottom images) including most of the AI guidance, and the majority of the ensembles... including the ECMWF/EPS which ruins most, if not all of Sunday. This will NOT be a tropical entity any longer when it affects our region, and will be post-tropical. A remnant low... bringing rain and not much else. Wind will be minimal. The remnant moisture is rather progressive, so this has limited upside. Not something that will sit there for days and dump 4-6"+ of flooding rain. It's just a matter of timing and how much rain exactly that needs to be worked out over the next several days. If you have outdoor events planned for Sunday, don't cancel anything yet, but keep those plans in pencil. Daily updates will be provided in EPAWA's daily forecast videos over the next several days.
Although there have been several named tropical cyclones this year, there have been ZERO hurricanes as of today, October 7th. It is unprecedented territory in the post-satellite era, which is to say since 1966 where we've gone this late in the season without a named storm reaching hurricane strength. In the pre-satellite era however, 1914 is the last time we went throughout the entire season without a hurricane designation. To put that into perspective, that was the year that World War I began. So it's been quite some time that we've been hurricane-less for this long. Although some will argue that in the pre-satellite era, there may have been a maritime hurricane that no one could see. Kind of the old "if a tree falls in the forest and no one is around to see it, does it make a sound?" argument. There may have been one... or even a few that year. But none documented, and none that anyone could see out in the middle of the Atlantic without satellite.
