09/23/2024
INVEST 97L EXPECTED TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM; LOCAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE LATER IN WEEK... Tropical trouble is brewing in the Caribbean Sea this evening with the potential for significant impacts becoming possible across parts of Florida, Alabama, and Georgia later this week. The National Hurricane Center says Invest 97L, the tropical disturbance located just northeast of the coast of Honduras in the western Caribbean Sea, has an 80% chance of becoming a named tropical storm over the next few days. While quite a bit of uncertainty continues to exist in the forecast, model guidance has firmed up in the idea of potential impacts for parts of Florida later this week. Some scenarios would point to local impacts in Alabama and northwest Florida while several other viable scenarios would lead to little to no major impacts locally. We have a range of outcomes this evening.
LOCAL IMPACTS DISCUSSION - S.W. ALABAMA & N.W. FLORIDA... Let me vehemently empathize that the graphic attached is a rough estimation of the "impacts zone" and greatest impacts zone," based on the latest data that I have been observing over the last several hours. These zones CAN AND WILL change as we get more data in over the next few days. Heavy rain will become likely at times across parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida later this week as this system approaches from the south. Flash flooding may become a concern. The threat of high wind and tornadoes is less clear across our local area as we need to get a better handle of the future path of the system. While possible in some scenarios, there are many more scenarios that would keep the threat of high wind and tornadoes well to our east. In addition, hazards like high waves and rip currents are likely at our local beaches this week and into the weekend. Please check back in with me over the next few days for more updates.
LOCAL IMPACTS DISCUSSION - FLORIDA PANHANDLE, S.E. ALABAMA, S.W. GEORGIA... Significant impacts would be likely in parts of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia under the current forecast guidance. Again, this is highly subject to change depending on new data coming in over the next few days. The current forecast guidance suggests the potential exists for hurricane impacts in parts of these areas, specifically closer to the coast. Significant impacts would be possible further inland in parts of southeast Alabama and/or southwest Georgia IF the system ends up being a major hurricane at landfall.
STORM TIMING - INVEST 97L... Direct local impacts in Alabama and northwest Florida would happen likely on Thursday into Friday, IF current forecast guidance continues to hold. No significant weather impacts are expected locally Monday or Tuesday. The rip current risk will increase at all local beaches early this week with waves ramping up ahead of the tropical system being in the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.
FORECAST TRACK & INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS UNCERTAIN... We will begin to get a much better grasp of the future path and intensity of this system once a low-level center of circulation forms. Right now, the system is merely a blob of thunderstorms in the western Caribbean Sea located just northeast of the coast of Honduras. Tropical Storm Watches and Tropical Storm Warnings may be required for parts of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and perhaps the western part of Cuba tomorrow. The National Hurricane Center may begin issuing advisories on this system under the "Potential Tropical Cyclone" nomenclature as early as later tonight or tomorrow. I expect that model guidance will become more clear tomorrow evening into Tuesday.
TRACK SHIFTS WILL LEAD TO MAJORLY DIFFERENT OUTCOMES... Please remember that small shifts in the projected path of this developing tropical system will cause potentially significant shifts in the outcomes of what happens at a specific location. This means that if the core of the system makes landfall in northwest Florida or the Florida Panhandle near Panama City, impacts in our local area in southwest Alabama and northwest Florida would be more pronounced. IF, however, the system makes landfall further to the east near Apalachicola or the Big Bend region, impacts locally would likely be far less significant (and more significant for areas to our east!). Clarity will come with time as we continue to receive more data into the models.
WATCHES & WARNINGS LIKELY IN CUBA & MEXICO TOMORROW... Tropical Storm Watches and Tropical Storm Warnings may be required for parts of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and perhaps the western part of Cuba tomorrow. A Hurricane Watch will likely be needed for parts of Florida as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday.
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I will have another detailed update in the next regularly scheduled RedZone Weather forecast video that will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Have a nice Sunday evening!
