06/06/2014
So is history. It was a great show...lots going on in the lighting world. Here are my overall impressions/observations:
1. LED is it...with the exception of some retro-style incandescents and specialty extremely high lumen commercial stuff...LED is all there is.
1a. Fluorescent is gone! I talked to some vendors and industry experts who said said overall sales aren't down...but since there is virtually no new research going on and LED prices are falling dramatically, they expect large scale phase outs to begin as they have in the consumer market. I didn't see a single fluorescent tube anywhere...period.
2. There are multitudes of vendors showing virtually identical products. Further, everyone's attempts at differentiating are all heading the same direction...for lamps(bulbs) it's higher CRI and in drivers (the electronic piece that communicates to the LED) it's about being smaller and running cooler.
2a. Because of #2, I expect that the industry is ready to begin paring down as happens in all new tech leaps. Since we have huge players already in the market (Philips, GE, LG, Samsung, etc...) this could turn ugly. Smaller guys could get shafted if they don't get bought out. I expect the commercial side to be a little more tolerant of smaller vendors since there are so many specialty products. I expect the market for drivers and lamps will be down to a handful of companies within the next five years or so, whereas the decorative market will be as diverse as ever (if not more)...but they will all be using only a few different companies' "light engines"...which brings me to:
3. The decorative options for LED seem to be absolutely infinite!! Materials from wood to exotic metals, bendable, shapeable, multi-colored...nothing is off-limits. It used to be that heat and size were issues that decorative fixture makers had to work-around...this is no longer an issue and they've begun to go wild....it's really cool!
4. Shifting color temperature for specific tasks is coming. Control systems (close to my heart) have been used to control dimming for years, soon (and I mean REALLY soon) they will be controlling color temperature as well. You want to read and stay focused? Set your color temperature to 4500K...you want to relax and talk with friends? 2400K should set the mood right. Will you be able to do this with a single replacement lamp? Not anytime soon...but if you're willing to change out your recessed lights and other fixtures, you'll may be able to do with within a few months. And over time, it will become cheaper to do so. Many new homes will be built with this capability in the near future.
5. Organic LED (OLED) is beginning to make a presence. Without getting technical, OLED generates less heat and can create virtually flat sources of light...they can be made to show any color and are very promising for unique decorative fixtures and, in some cases, general illumination. Cost, lifespan, and power consumption are issues that need to be solved before it can become a major player IMO.
As always...if you have any questions or want to discuss anything about lighting...leave your comments here or feel free to call!
