07/04/2026
** 4TH OF JULY SEVERE WEATHER RISK **
Mother Nature wants to join in the celebration of America's 250th with her own celebration, but it won't be nice. An incoming disturbance will be moving in this afternoon and evening, and with an extremely unstable airmass (due to our high heat and humidity) and increased wind shear, we will have to keep an eye on the sky for potentially damaging wind clusters. The best risk of seeing these will be in the red Zone 2 region, as this is where we will have the greatest overlap of wind shear and instability.
ZONE 2: Scattered (15-30% chance) for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The greatest risk will be locally damaging wind gusts of 65 - 75 and perhaps some hail. An isolated gust to 80 mph cannot be ruled out in the strongest wind segments. Best timing will be between 3 - 9 PM.
ZONE 1: Isolated (5-15% chance) for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The greatest risk will be locally damaging wind gusts of 55 - 70 and perhaps some hail. Timing varies on this zone as storm coverage will be very spotty and hit-or-miss, with the best coverage in Zone 2.
WHAT DO I DO WITH MY OUTDOOR PLANS / FIREWORK PLANS? I would keep them as scheduled. It is still uncertain where these storm clusters develop, but keep in mind that if you are outdoors, to be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions. Seek shelter indoors when thunder roars! For those with fireworks plans, it becomes uncertain, as it will be dependent on whether we see multiple rounds and how quick the storms move out. This will vary by location, but western Pennsylvania has the best chance of being dry for the fireworks shows compared to portions of central/eastern Pennsylvania.
-> Keep in mind, severe weather does not impact every house or neighborhood. Unless it is a large outbreak, severe weather impacts will differ even across small areas. It is always good to be prepared by having multiple ways of receiving severe weather alerts and a shelter to take cover in when severe weather strikes.
